A new poll paints a riveting picture of the 2028 presidential run and who voters currently prefer based on their age and ethnicity.
The poll also reveals a striking Democratic frontrunner, and an unsurprising one for the Republicans.
The Yale Youth Poll surveyed 3,426 registered voters, including 1,706 individuals aged between 18 and 34.
Highlights
- Yale Youth Poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic 2028 field with 25% support and 85% electability rating.
- Kamala Harris follows Newsom at 18%, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez third at 16%, favored by voters under 35.
- Republicans prefer JD Vance, with 51% support if Trump doesn't run; Trump retains 50% if pursuing a controversial third term.
A new Yale poll reveals Gavin Newsom as the Democratic frontrunner ahead of the 2028 presidential election
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The survey shows California Governor Gavin Newsom leading the field of potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential election.
He leads with 25% support and holds an 85% electability rating. Former Vice President Kamala Harris follows with 18%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ranks third with 16%.
The fall survey arrives as both Newsom and Harris have publicly suggested they may run for president. In an October CBS Sunday Morning interview, Newsom said he would be “lying” if he claimed he was not considering running for president.
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He told host Robert Costa, “I think the biggest challenge for anyone who runs for any office is that people see right through you if you don’t have that ‘why.’”
Newsom has remained a visible national figure during the second Trump administration. He often draws attention for his frequent social-media criticism of the president.
Last month, California voters approved Proposition 50, which allows the state to redraw all of its congressional districts in response to recent changes in Texas.
Newsom will leave office in January 2027 after completing two terms. He has been traveling to battleground states to support Democratic candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms.
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Typically, presidential hopefuls announce their campaigns in the spring of the election year.
Harris also appears to be keeping her options open. In a BBC interview promoting her book 107 Days, which recounts her brief 2024 presidential campaign after former President Joe Biden withdrew, she said she is “not done” when asked about a possible future run.
Ocasio-Cortez has not publicly indicated she plans to run for the White House, but her allies told The Hill in September that she has reasons to consider it.
“Why wouldn’t she be considering this?” they said, as they described her as “one of the biggest voices in the Democratic Party.”
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Ocasio-Cortez has built a huge social media influence, amassing more than 35 million followers across social media platforms.
“Her team has spent more on digital advertising than almost any other politician in 2025, and as a result, they have brought in hundreds of thousands of new small-dollar donations,” Kyle Tharp, author of media and politics newsletter Chaotic Era, told Axios in September.
The Yale Youth Poll highlights sharp differences in support across demographic groups: Ocasio-Cortez is most popular with voters under 35. Newsom performs best with white, male, and Hispanic Democrats. Harris receives her strongest backing from female and Black Democrats.
More than half of Republicans would vote for JD Vance
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While Democrats appear split among several figures, Republican respondents show a more unified pattern. In a Donald Trump-free scenario, Vice President JD Vance leads the GOP field with 51%.
Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, is at 8% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis draws 6%.
Image credits: Yale Youth Review
The poll also tested a hypothetical situation in which Trump seeks a third term, despite the Constitution’s two-term limit. Trump has hinted that he might pursue such a run.
In that scenario, 50% of Republican respondents say they would support Trump, while 19% would back Vance. Voters aged 18 to 22 are the only group that does not favor Trump over Vance.
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A separate version of the survey conducted by Emerson College in June also measured early attitudes about the Democratic field. That poll showed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading with 16% support, ahead of Harris at 13% and Newsom at 12%.
Emerson’s findings suggested considerable uncertainty among Democratic voters, with nearly one in four undecided.
With no candidates formally declared, the 2028 race remains wide open.