A new national poll revealed that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is leading the field of potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential race.
The survey, conducted by Emerson College Polling in late June, shows Buttigieg securing 16% support from likely Democratic primary voters, the highest among a crowded field of prominent names.
Highlights
- Pete Buttigieg leads the 2028 Democratic primary poll with 16% support, ahead of Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom.
- Buttigieg could become the first openly gay major-party presidential nominee if he wins the 2028 primary.
- Kamala Harris’s support dropped sharply from 37% in 2024 to 13% in the latest poll.
- Republican JD Vance is the 2028 GOP frontrunner with 46% support, well ahead of rivals.
- Economy is voters' top issue (32%), followed by threats to democracy (22%) and immigration (14%).
Pete Buttigieg is the leading Democratic candidate for the 2028 presidential race, a new poll reveals
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Buttigieg was the first openly gay person confirmed by the Senate to a U.S. Cabinet position, and if he wins the 2028 Democratic election primary, he will be the first openly gay Democratic nominee.
Vice President Kamala Harris, who was the 2024 Democratic nominee, trails closely behind with 13% support.
California Governor Gavin Newsom follows at 12%. New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are tied at 7%, while Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont garnered 5%. New Jersey Senator Cory Booker received 3%.
A significant 23% of respondents, that is one in four Democratic voters, say they are still undecided.
Image credits: Emerson College Polling
This marks a sharp shift from an earlier poll taken in November 2024, shortly after the presidential election, when Harris held a commanding 37% of support.
The current numbers suggest shifting sentiments within the Democratic base as it searches for a new presidential candidate.
Buttigieg previously ran for president in 2020, where he was initially seen as a long shot, but rose to the top tier of candidates by late 2019.
He narrowly won the 2020 Iowa caucuses, becoming the first openly gay candidate to win a state presidential primary. After a poor showing in South Carolina, he dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden.
He then served as the Secretary of Transportation under Biden’s presidency.
Since leaving the Biden administration, he has made appearances on popular media platforms and spoken out on key national issues.
These include condemning the U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration after federal agents violently detained California Sen. Alex Padilla during a press conference in Los Angeles.
He has also emphasized the importance of family, recently opting not to run for Michigan governor or U.S. Senate to spend more time with his husband, Chasten, and their two children.
On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the GOP’s 2028 nomination.
Image credits: Emerson College Polling
Vance received 46% support in the same Emerson poll, far ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio (12%), Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (9%), and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (5%).
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said JD Vance “solidified himself as the frontrunner in the 2028 nomination contest, backed by 52% of male Republican primary voters and voters over 60”.
JD Vance is the frontrunner on the Republican side
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The report recorded a net negative approval rating for Trump. The poll shows 46% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s performance, while 45% approve.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats hold a slight advantage. In a generic ballot, both parties are tied at 42% with 16% undecided.
Among independent voters, Democrats lead 37% vs. 29%, though 34% of independents remain undecided.
When asked about the most important issue facing the country, 32% of voters cited the economy, followed by 22% who pointed to threats to democracy, and 14% who mentioned immigration.
Buttigieg’s current lead, though modest, could signal a significant shift within the Democratic Party.
As he continues to raise his national profile, many observers are watching to see whether he can maintain momentum and possibly make history as the first openly gay major-party presidential nominee.
During his failed bid to be the Democratic nominee, Buttigieg called for an increase in federal funding for renewable energy
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Buttigieg is a Rhodes Scholar and a Harvard graduate. From 2009 to 2017, he served as a Navy Reserve intelligence officer and was deployed to Afghanistan.
During the 2020 elections, Buttigieg called for an increase in federal funding for renewable energy development and stronger gun-control laws.
He also proposed a more accessible health-care plan with the slogan: “Medicare for all who want it.”
He is considered to be one of the most effective communicators in the Democratic Party, and was often a frequent guest on news programs to promote Biden’s policies.